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Then there's the weirder junior version, the second model of pervasive computing, the "things that think" version. In this model, there is some limited bandwidth, but basically, everything's got its own chip in it. Everyday products have processing capacity as a matter of course. Onboard computation is inherent in all postindustrial products. As a futurist, I'm attracted to this version because it's farther away and the implications have been less explored. There are no hard and fast lines between these two models. They're not exclusive, they could combine. You could have a zillion little chips marinating in a giant wireless Internet. But we already have a good running start on the first version. The second model is still mostly talk (though there is some great talk, such as Neil Gershenfeld's book WHEN THINGS START TO THINK). You cannot have pervasive computing without pervasive power. If my smallest source of practical electric power has to be recharged and replaced all the time, then we're living in laptop world and palmtop world. Cheap, smart, ubiquitous objects would be out of the question. There is a very stiff entry fee for a things-that-think world. I have to deliver a fraction of a watt to a few k of circuitry, dependably, for years on end, without ever having to pay any attention. No wires, no plugs. That's just not possible now. But it may become possible. Then we're living in world where forks can be smart. Where bricks can be smart. As for shoes, shoes are extremely smart.
For the sake of my speculation, let's just assume that we've somehow
beaten the battery problem. Let's forecast how this technology might
develop. Basically, I envision three stages. Since this
is a design conference, let me sketch them for you. There's a
nice haptic interface standing over here on this easel. No one
else has used it. But novelists like to run their demos on paper.
(((Speaker uncaps a green marker.))) Look! It affords
greenness! NEXT PAGE: Things that stay on... |
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